An illustration of chaos theory
An illustration of chaos theory. Notice how ensemble members diverge as we get towards Monday. This is from the ECMWF 12Z indicating uncertainty on the precise synoptic condition on Monday at the time of that model run.
Animation of spaghetti plot for Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) showing chaos theory in action:
Animation of spaghetti plot for Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) showing chaos theory in action:
Animation of spaghetti plot for 500 hPa geopotential height showing chaos theory in action:
Spread among ensemble members: